ISO-NE 2-Year Forecast Analysis Report
2-Year Forecast vs Actual Demand Comparison (Sampled Bi-Hourly)
Top 20 Largest Outliers (Past 2 Years)
| Timestamp | Forecast (MW) | Avg Actual (MW) | Difference (MW) | % Error |
|---|
| 2024-06-19 01:00 | 13,600 | 15,752 | +2,152 | 15.82% |
| 2024-03-22 13:00 | 9,830 | 11,948 | +2,118 | 21.55% |
| 2024-06-19 02:00 | 12,980 | 15,051 | +2,071 | 15.96% |
| 2024-04-14 12:00 | 7,670 | 9,610 | +1,940 | 25.3% |
| 2024-03-22 12:00 | 9,660 | 11,596 | +1,936 | 20.04% |
| 2024-06-19 00:00 | 14,450 | 16,353 | +1,903 | 13.17% |
| 2024-06-19 03:00 | 12,700 | 14,585 | +1,885 | 14.85% |
| 2025-10-25 13:00 | 8,370 | 10,254 | +1,884 | 22.51% |
| 2024-03-22 14:00 | 10,200 | 11,991 | +1,791 | 17.56% |
| 2024-07-17 14:00 | 22,170 | 20,462 | -1,708 | 7.7% |
| 2025-10-18 15:00 | 8,490 | 10,162 | +1,672 | 19.69% |
| 2024-07-17 13:00 | 21,510 | 19,847 | -1,663 | 7.73% |
| 2024-07-23 03:00 | 13,120 | 14,766 | +1,646 | 12.55% |
| 2025-01-26 12:00 | 12,220 | 13,850 | +1,630 | 13.34% |
| 2026-03-05 03:00 | 11,810 | 13,427 | +1,617 | 13.69% |
| 2024-08-01 01:00 | 14,340 | 15,950 | +1,610 | 11.23% |
| 2026-03-05 02:00 | 11,740 | 13,323 | +1,583 | 13.49% |
| 2024-08-03 03:00 | 14,600 | 16,179 | +1,579 | 10.82% |
| 2025-10-18 14:00 | 7,390 | 8,965 | +1,575 | 21.31% |
| 2025-07-16 03:00 | 14,140 | 15,708 | +1,568 | 11.09% |
Average Error Rate (%) by Hour and Month (Past 2 Years)
| Hour | Month 01 | Month 02 | Month 03 | Month 04 | Month 05 | Month 06 | Month 07 | Month 08 | Month 09 | Month 10 | Month 11 | Month 12 |
|---|
| 00:00 | 3.35% | 2.99% | 2.73% | 2.67% | 3.86% | 2.75% | 2.93% | 2.91% | 3.40% | 4.02% | 5.21% | 3.33% |
| 01:00 | 4.25% | 4.42% | 3.62% | 3.95% | 5.69% | 4.50% | 5.23% | 5.06% | 5.42% | 5.66% | 6.64% | 4.59% |
| 02:00 | 4.77% | 4.97% | 4.23% | 4.71% | 6.97% | 5.54% | 6.85% | 7.00% | 6.65% | 6.45% | 7.54% | 5.22% |
| 03:00 | 4.76% | 4.86% | 4.62% | 4.90% | 7.45% | 6.14% | 7.41% | 7.68% | 7.29% | 6.71% | 7.70% | 5.28% |
| 04:00 | 3.98% | 3.65% | 4.10% | 4.35% | 6.92% | 6.02% | 7.51% | 7.71% | 6.89% | 5.97% | 6.55% | 4.60% |
| 05:00 | 2.18% | 1.51% | 1.89% | 2.27% | 3.79% | 4.46% | 6.26% | 5.94% | 4.04% | 3.19% | 3.24% | 2.64% |
| 06:00 | 1.25% | 0.72% | 1.00% | 1.38% | 1.68% | 2.50% | 4.11% | 3.26% | 1.63% | 1.07% | 1.28% | 1.16% |
| 07:00 | 1.03% | 0.85% | 0.99% | 1.19% | 1.51% | 1.96% | 2.71% | 2.47% | 1.19% | 0.75% | 0.90% | 0.87% |
| 08:00 | 0.98% | 0.99% | 1.27% | 1.61% | 1.94% | 2.06% | 1.77% | 2.40% | 1.99% | 1.14% | 1.41% | 1.06% |
| 09:00 | 1.27% | 1.43% | 1.67% | 2.15% | 1.73% | 2.05% | 1.33% | 2.61% | 2.83% | 2.39% | 2.70% | 1.31% |
| 10:00 | 1.93% | 2.65% | 3.08% | 4.20% | 2.55% | 2.48% | 1.35% | 2.45% | 4.08% | 5.27% | 4.09% | 2.29% |
| 11:00 | 2.77% | 3.16% | 5.17% | 5.73% | 3.29% | 2.69% | 1.34% | 2.33% | 4.07% | 6.34% | 4.66% | 2.88% |
| 12:00 | 2.77% | 3.26% | 6.39% | 6.51% | 3.28% | 2.75% | 1.33% | 2.02% | 3.93% | 6.65% | 4.51% | 3.10% |
| 13:00 | 2.54% | 3.57% | 6.92% | 6.48% | 3.17% | 1.94% | 1.28% | 1.90% | 3.01% | 5.97% | 3.69% | 2.60% |
| 14:00 | 1.66% | 2.54% | 5.98% | 5.32% | 2.64% | 1.83% | 1.14% | 1.87% | 1.94% | 4.93% | 2.05% | 1.55% |
| 15:00 | 1.19% | 1.75% | 4.40% | 4.28% | 1.87% | 1.45% | 1.28% | 1.46% | 1.76% | 3.07% | 0.95% | 1.44% |
| 16:00 | 1.11% | 1.22% | 2.24% | 2.68% | 1.87% | 1.85% | 1.17% | 1.30% | 1.59% | 1.52% | 0.96% | 1.19% |
| 17:00 | 1.16% | 0.97% | 1.97% | 2.52% | 2.05% | 1.83% | 1.47% | 1.66% | 1.49% | 1.15% | 0.95% | 1.23% |
| 18:00 | 1.00% | 0.95% | 1.39% | 1.59% | 1.76% | 1.59% | 1.36% | 1.85% | 1.15% | 0.88% | 0.92% | 1.11% |
| 19:00 | 0.99% | 0.96% | 1.22% | 1.05% | 1.49% | 1.46% | 1.23% | 1.43% | 1.08% | 0.82% | 0.94% | 1.06% |
| 20:00 | 1.23% | 0.93% | 1.14% | 0.90% | 1.12% | 1.39% | 1.47% | 1.39% | 0.92% | 0.82% | 0.84% | 0.95% |
| 21:00 | 1.43% | 1.06% | 1.25% | 0.88% | 1.02% | 1.43% | 1.61% | 1.24% | 0.83% | 0.88% | 0.94% | 1.19% |
| 22:00 | 1.75% | 1.38% | 1.56% | 1.05% | 1.17% | 1.64% | 1.67% | 1.25% | 0.89% | 1.19% | 1.78% | 1.50% |
| 23:00 | 2.37% | 2.06% | 1.99% | 1.54% | 1.91% | 2.07% | 2.66% | 1.49% | 1.50% | 2.17% | 3.14% | 2.39% |